Beijing Olympics 2008

Chinese teams were able to achieve their goals more or less. Except for the failure of 110 meter hurdle king Liu Xiang, they did not have any big failures. Most of the performances were as expected. Sweep in Diving (except for a lone Australian, gay, winner) and Table Tennis were complete and emphatic.

Americans have to deal with their spectacular failures in Track and Field. At least 3 gold medals were literally thrown (4 x 100 relay for both men and women and women’s 110 meter hurdle champion Lolo Jones) along with some other failures. In Gymnastics, body blows were incurred before the start of the tournament when Hamm brothers pulled out. Alicia Sacramone’s failure cost America their Women’s Team Gold Medal in Gymnastics too.

However, all of that would not have helped America to catch with China in Gold Medals. Count for Americans might have improved to 40plus something at the most, but that is it. But American contingent is always large and certain failures are always built in. For last 3 Olympics USA has got exactly 36 Gold Medals.

(Courtesy fantastic graphics by NYT -

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/08/04/sports/olympics/20080804_MEDALCOUNT_MAP.html)

So one can not argue that Gold Medal performance was bad in Beijing. In fact the total medal count has been steadily increasing for last 3 summer games – 91, 102 and now 110. Even in Atlanta Olympics of 1996, Americans could only win 101 total medals with only higher gold count of 44. One can speculate that home team advantage results in higher Gold Medals and that helped China to make the great haul of 51 Gold Medals. Of course, no one is undermining what China has achieved here. Any country winning more than 50 Gold Medals in today’s highly competitive Olympics must be recognized as singularly dominant Sports Power. Last time it was Soviet Union (just before the break up) in 1998 Seoul Olympics when it won 55 Gold Medals. Americans were again 36 Gold and 94 total medals then. However compared to Seoul, Olympics games have become even more competitive and hence Chinese triumph is remarkable. It will be unlikely any country could surpass this bar for some time to come including home team except of course China repeating this feat.

But that may not be so simple going forward. For 2008 Olympics, USOC encouraged many programs apart from Swimming and Track & Field to set medal goals and some succeeded too (Fencing comes prominently to the mind). Peter Ueberroth, the outgoing USOC Chairman, has already indicated that USA will rather have more focus in ‘targeting medals’ in uncommon events too. With Great Britain’s phenomenal success in this Olympics (primarily guided by 8 Gold medals in Cycling, 4 in Sailing and 2 in Rowing; total medal haul of 47); it is clear many countries will try to emulate the Chinese formula. The countries to watch will be Russia, flush with Oil money it will try to build on their traditionally strong sports tradition; Germany and Australia, both of which did not have that much success in Beijing. This means all major sporting countries will be adopting the Chinese formula for success and hence Chinese mark of 50+ Olympic Gold Medals will be the high water mark for long time to come.

It is possible that the countries will lobby with IOC to count multiple Gold, Silver and Bronze Medals for team sports. Americans have started to set that tone. Of course it is beneficial for Americans to argue that because of the spectacular performance of Americans in Team Games. Here are the numbers:

Games considered are (men and women): Baseball, Basketball, Beach Volleyball, Field Hockey, Handball, Soccer, Softball, Volleyball and Water polo. Except for Men’s field Hockey and both Handballs, American teams qualified in all of the 13 team games. China being the host competed in all of these 16 team games.

There in lines America’s redemption at Beijing Olympics – apart from the pinnacle of individual performance by Michael Phelps, it is the team games where Americans shined. These team results and the overall highest medal count (as if to tease China) kind of makes American performance reasonably at par with China.

There have been many other notable successes at this Olympics like Jamaica, Afghanistan and even India. In short, more and more countries are winning medals at Olympics and overall competitiveness is increasing. With that context, it is clear that success of China and America is remarkable.

Politically, these games delivered for Chinese Communist Party. When you have some regional Communist Party leaders arguing that ‘you need stranglehold of the Party to get results’; it is clear that the Party got what it was looking for. Investment of over $40 Billion Dollars and 6 years of relentless nationwide efforts have paid of for China. Long live the Communist Party rule!

Bush’s Dangerous Legacy

Every time we feel that Americans have got hold on what are their public liabilities and commitments, Bush Administration surprises them by making open one more public commitment. That is the case with what the recent Georgia Russia war reveals to Americans.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili openly played the game of ‘baiting’ America in his foolish instigation with Russia. Saakashvili’s Army got decimated and Georgian people suffered umpteenth times. But those are collateral damages; what is worrisome is it unveiled security expectations from America in that region.

One would think failure of America in not fulfilling exaggerated expectations of Georgians would make countries from former Soviet Union to rethink their relations with Russia and not to depend on unreliable America (‘talk is cheap with these chest thumping Americans’). But the effect of this war seems to be the opposite – all these former Soviet Union countries are clinging to NATO and USA at faster rate. Poland signs the missile deal with USA and Ukraine says it wants to participate in that deal too and is ready to deny Russians any access to its Black Sea port Sevastopol.

VP Cheney’s office tried all his two terms to convince these former Soviet Union countries to fall for his jingoistic missile plan; but he did not have much success. But one defeat with Russia (fortunately without any American causality) and all these countries are falling in line! VP Cheney would not have imagined such success too.

But alas, what is Cheney’s success is generally America’s loss and it is no different in this case. Bush Administration never made any public case to Americans what are the benefits of this proposed missile defense shield in these former Soviet Union countries and what could be the potential consequences. It for sure rattled Putin’s Russia and set it on the Stalinist course of foreign policy and here we are effectively on the brink of repeat of Cold War in 21st century. Russian Generals openly claim that Poland is now on ‘radar’ for Russian missile attacks as well as potentially other European cities. Russia wants to equip its Kaliningrad fleet in Baltic Sea with nuclear weapons and is actively thinking about stationing Russian or Russian backed advance forces in Cuba. All this for some missile shield in Eastern Europe, allegedly to stop Iranian missiles as if there are no better ways to stop Iran.

This is what we get when Bush ‘sees soul of someone’ – the soul of his former pal Vladimir Putin. What a judgment and what hubris! It was hilarious to see American President sweating with exotic Beach Volleyball players at the start of Beijing Olympics and at the same time frantically trying to work ‘geopolitics’ with the prince from Russia; what a rat hole he got us into.

The problem is not the foolishness of Bush and his Administration but effectively again and again American Public and next administration has to stand holding the bag. It started with Iraq, with Iran there is no progress and with N. Korea Americans are where Clinton left them while all along the problem of Terrorism is not even half addressed. Everywhere it is the same pattern – nothing is solved completely, everything is half finished. Presidents in a mature democracy are expected to leave their country in better security scenario than they start at their terms. Here with George Bush, on every front America is in a deeper hole than where he started. That is Bush’s legacy.

German Chancellor visits Georgia and backs Saakashvili’s goal of getting into NATO (no, we do not see any politics where a Christian Democratic Union German leader backs Christian Caucasian President!). This means it is a matter of time before Georgia and Ukraine will be in NATO. As per the treaty there is no way America can avoid not being into the war anytime any of these European nations are attacked by Russia regardless of whether these European nations on purpose ‘baited’ America or genuinely face Russian challenge. This means in the next European war theatre, American blood will be spilled for sure. As these foolish NeoCon policies are pursued, the danger of such armed clashes has suddenly increased.

Bush’s wise Defense Secretary may say that for more than four decades American Foreign Policy made all efforts to avoid clashes with Soviet Union; but NeoCon folly is to negate this valuable lesson. German population is decreasing and Germany is in any case reluctant to commit any of its forces anywhere else (has anyone heard enthusiastic participation by Germans in NATO’s Afghan campaign?). This means when actual firing would start in Eastern Europe; it will be the American GI who will on the front.

McCain, Robert Kagan, Weekly Standard and the whole NeoCon cavalcade will be simply thrilled to resurrect the Cold War. McCain’s of this world are in the politics only to relive ‘Churchillian’ life again and again; as many times as possible. For them it is always ‘scrapping all the blood and treasury’ for the next glory. Time and again Conservative forces can only run up to the vision of ‘Churchill’; nothing more as if the world has not moved beyond 1940s. Their vision of ‘heroism’ is so anarchic and out of place for today’s challenges.

But what needs to happen is ‘to expose’ and let Americans know what Bush and his accolades are ‘underwriting’ in Eastern Europe. American Media failed in Iraq and the danger is Americans will miss again to know what commitments they are tied too. Having a sane discussion of whether these commitments make sense for America or not is the next step; but the first step is to put all these commitments on table so Americans know what we are getting into. We have incomplete wars in Iraq (at least for next 4 to 5 years) and Afghanistan (next 8 to 10 years); war on terror is no way concluded and now we are talking about another draw down on American blood in Eastern Europe.

Fareed Zakaria may very well make an erudite case that the next administration does not fall into the trap as how Bush Administration set to reverse Clinton Foreign Policies only to pay higher price in coming the full circle; but here is the case for the next administration to undertake complete evaluation of what is going on Eastern Europe, to be realistic about what America can under write, follow ‘hot & cold’ relationship with Russia and if needed reverse the course Bush has set for us. Everyone knows that it is the price of Oil which is propelling Russian aggressions. As America invests in alternative energy and moves away from her oil addiction; America will reduce the dangerous dependence on hydro-carbons. But even if America reduces its dependence on hydrocarbons; China and India of the world will continue to depend for long on oil; consequently Russian spigot of Oil Money will be a long way from drying. Hence, America and West will need a calibrated policy in dealing with Russia. Bush messed up that and McCain does not seem to get it. It will be imperative for Obama and Democrats to offer clearer vision here.

John Edwards

Thank lord, we never had too much of space (or none at all) devoted to this politician on this blog. It was hard to reconcile wealth garnered by a trial lawyer by milking wrong doings of corporations with his quite narrow political platform in primaries – eradicating poverty. It was hard to understand how you would eradicate poverty when your policies were in effect all ‘anti-employment generation’. His incessant references to his humble roots were tiresome.

He did, however, contribute to American Politics by forcing Democratic candidates to come up with credible Health Care Plan. He effectively set that agenda. But there too frustrations of folks like Ezra Klein is understandable -

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=08&year=2008&base_name=edwards

As is said, he literally risked Democrats in this presidential cycle. Good riddance. Who is the next Dem in this year’s crop of Elliot Spitzer, John Edwards and the gang?

John’s wife Elizabeth has been the moral force in setting the tone for John’s campaign in primaries. Her article in NYT about health care and media’s ignorance of this important issue has been a classic. However, unfortunately this development kind of raises some hard questions to Elizabeth too – how come knowing John’s affair she backed him his pursuit of presidency? Especially, without coming clean in the first place? Something is missing here.

More and more it is clear that so many of our politicians find it hard to keep their political promises and postures credible. May be it is a tough business to be in. Is it rally? Or it is just a question of being ‘honest’?

America’s Energy Responses

As they say, it is pitch dark before the dawn. Seems like that is the case with America’s Energy Crisis.

The heartening developments are:
- both Presidential candidates are bowing to the increasing public pressure to come up with good policy responses;
- Obama puts forward a reasonable 3 point plan (electric cars, increased electricity from alternative resources and funds for research / roll over to newer technologies) along with a respectable response to bridge this transition using new oil drilling as needed;
- Pickens plan of using Wind energy and Natural gas for transportation and the traction that plan is getting.

Do we see reduced oil prices as response to these early game changing responses by America? Of course, we are past peak Summer Driving season which is developing as the ‘summer when demand destruction started’ and that is reducing the price.

But if one wants to read some bare nickel raw response of a money guy; one needs to read JJ Cramer’s article pointing out the significance of Natural Gas and Wind.
( http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10432123.html ) That is the classical American way – only when one sees the potential to make money, Americans start to change. Money talks for Americans and I like what I see here.